Long-term prognosis of acute otitis media in infancy: determinants of recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion.

OBJECTIVES Children under 2 years of age with acute otitis media are known to have a relatively poor prognosis. The objective of this study was to assess whether known determinants for recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion after an episode of acute otitis media during childhood also apply to children under 2 years. METHODS STUDY DESIGN prospective study of 210 children under 2, with identification of potential prognostic determinants. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to evaluate which parameters independently contributed to the prediction of both outcome measures (recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion). A prognostic function was developed, and the area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) was used to estimate the predictive ability of the prognostic models. POPULATION children under 2 years of age with an episode of acute otitis media in family practice. OUTCOMES MEASURED recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion. RESULTS For the outcome recurrent acute otitis media data from 210 children were used and winter season, male sex, passive smoking and persistent symptoms for more than 10 days at presentation were independent prognostic determinants. For the outcome persistent middle ear effusion data from 190 children were used and winter season, bilateral disease at entry, a sibling history of recurrent acute otitis media, and a previous episode of acute otitis media independently predicted the outcome. No sufficiently discriminatory prognostic model could be constructed for either outcome measure. CONCLUSION Prediction of recurrent acute otitis media or persistent middle ear effusion in individual young children remains poor.